EventTracker Beta

Go to marketplaces to guess
come to EventTracker to KNOW

Event Tracker probability estimates are not a recommendation to gamble
Get Telegram Alerts
LATEST EVENTS
POLY Bitcoin above ___ on June 12? $10,849 KALSHI New York J: To Break Playoff Drought MANIFOLD πŸ†• Will Ryan Strophy get a girlfriend by the end of June? αΉ€895 SX πŸ†• Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles LMTLS πŸ†• ETH Up or Down - Hourly $47,057 MYRIAD Will Base TGE in 2026? $8 BETFAIR Which of these parties will provide the Prime Minister of Australia following the next (subsequent to May 2022) Federal $430,497 FORETOLD If Brexit occurs under a Conservative majority government elected in the 2019 election, will it be a hard Brexit? POLY # of views of MrBeast video week 1? (Smaller Strikes) $14,684 KALSHI Which bank will lead OpenAI's IPO? $36 MANIFOLD Who will win the 2026 Giro d'Italia Women? [V4] αΉ€26,360 SX πŸ†• Los Angeles Rams vs Green Bay Packers LMTLS πŸ†• XRP Up or Down - Hourly $13,040 MYRIAD Altseason before July? $21 BETFAIR Which party will win the most parliamentary seats at the next UK general election? $224,796 FORETOLD Untruncated additional mitigation of far future impact of war due to planning and R&D (ALLFED's estimate) POLY Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs $64,817 KALSHI Which banks will take OpenAI public? $27 MANIFOLD Who will make Indonesia's IOAI 2026 Team? αΉ€838 SX πŸ†• San Francisco 49ers vs Minnesota Vikings LMTLS πŸ†• BTC Up or Down - Hourly $16,898 MYRIAD World Cup 2026: Who will perform better? $10 BETFAIR Which candidate will win the 2028 US Presidential Election? $217,859 FORETOLD When will more than half of the main broad types of conventional acellular animal products have at least one cost-compet POLY Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs ASTRAL (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage $11,065 KALSHI Which bank will lead Anthropic's IPO? $229 MANIFOLD Will the Jones Act be in effect for more than half of 2027? αΉ€610 SX πŸ†• Detroit Lions vs New England Patriots LMTLS πŸ†• BNB Up or Down - Hourly $8,794 MYRIAD ETH flipped on CMC Historicals in 2026? $941 BETFAIR Who will be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, after Keir Starmer? $114,939 FORETOLD How many of Eliezer Yudkowsky, Paul Christiano, Nate Soares, and Dario Amodei will still be working on AI safety by the
LATEST WHALES
MANIFOLD αΉ€7,655 YES Will the s&p500 close at 7,500.00 or less before 2028? @ 99% Β· by Jack1 MANIFOLD αΉ€2,500 NO Will consumer AI platforms (ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, etc) face an β€˜economic blackout’ protest against the US govt? @ 7% Β· by consnop MANIFOLD αΉ€2,087 YES market @ 100% Β· by CraigIM POLY $3,969 BUY Yes Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? @ 62% Β· by easypredict MANIFOLD αΉ€3,000 YES Praggnanandhaa R Who will win the 2026 Norway Chess Tournament? @ 98% Β· by ChristopherRandles MANIFOLD αΉ€5,000 NO Other Who will win the 2026 Giro d'Italia Women? [V4] @ 10% Β· by Eliza MANIFOLD αΉ€10,000 NO Other Who will win the 2026 Giro d'Italia Women? [V4] @ 16% Β· by Eliza MANIFOLD αΉ€3,000 NO Alireza Firouzja Who will win the 2026 Norway Chess Tournament? @ 6% Β· by bens MANIFOLD αΉ€2,915 YES market @ 99% Β· by calour MANIFOLD αΉ€4,000 YES πŸ‡©πŸ‡ͺ Alexander Zverev 2026 French Open - Men’s singles winner? @ 74% Β· by SentientTree MANIFOLD αΉ€3,500 NO Bitcoin $82K in June? @ 1% Β· by 100Anonymous POLY $5,080 BUY No Will Maxx Crosby play for Los Angeles Rams next? @ 100% Β· by 0xde41…a8a6 POLY $10,000 BUY Team Falcons Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner @ 30% Β· by TURURUTURURURU POLY $4,430 BUY Khololwam Montsi Centurion 2: Arda Azkara vs Khololwam Montsi @ 89% Β· by willlyouare POLY $4,819 BUY Anyones Legend LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner @ 73% Β· by diooson POLY $10,000 BUY LGD Gaming Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs @ 52% Β· by 0xE16D3F2A5807999b358aFfD9445C3a09E45E5e30-1776429210592 POLY $2,061 BUY Down Bitcoin Up or Down on June 5? @ 90% Β· by kingofcoinflips POLY $2,100 BUY Yes Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? @ 78% Β· by elPolloLoco POLY $17,040 SELL No US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? @ 98% Β· by 779Bf-1774 POLY $5,954 SELL No US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? @ 49% Β· by 0x843C0fDaAB99F50AA1ec7002eE31cfdd0d4863
πŸ† JACKPOTS

πŸ”₯ Hot Underdogs

Γ—2.4 vol multiplier
+$17,262 new money
Polymarket
World Cup: Team to advance to Knockout Stages
πŸ’§
$1.2M
liquidity
↑ Saudi Arabia 36%
β˜… Spain 98%
Before $12,192 Now $29,454
36%
98%
Γ—36.5 vol multiplier
+$9,978 new money
Kalshi
2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
πŸ’§
β€”
liquidity
↑ Josh Shapiro 3%
β˜… Marco Rubio 17%
Before $281 Now $10,259
3%
17%
Γ—3.2 vol multiplier
+$5,460 new money
Polymarket
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies
πŸ’§
$1.8M
liquidity
↑ O/U 8.5 48%
β˜… O/U 5.5 76%
Before $2,539 Now $7,998 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ
48%
76%

πŸ† Federated Board β€” top 60 events Β· click any row to open

  1. 1 Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 55 usd2.4M <24h
  2. 2 San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs 52 usd1.3M <7d
  3. 3 πŸ” Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 51 usd2.7M >7d
  4. 4 πŸ“°πŸ” 2026 French Open - Men’s singles winner? 51 mana26.8k <7d
  5. 5 πŸ“°πŸ” 2028 Republican presidential nominee 47 usd1.2M >7d
  6. 6 What price will Bitcoin hit in June? 46 usd1.8M >7d
  7. 7 πŸ“° Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by...? 43 usd2.3M >7d
  8. 8 Knicks vs. Spurs 39 usd4.3M <24h
  9. 9 πŸ” Starmer out before July? 38 mana17.3k >7d
  10. 10 πŸ” Will Elon Musk become a trillionaire before June 16th 2026? 36 mana16.5k >7d
  11. 11 πŸ” 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner 36 usd485.7k
  12. 12 πŸ” 2026 NHL Stanley Cup Champion 36 mana8.9k >7d
  13. 13 πŸ” Bitcoin below $60K in 2026? 35 mana9.5k >7d
  14. 14 Where will Maxx Crosby play in 2026? 35 usd1.3M >7d
  15. 15 World Cup Winner 35 usd48.6M >7d
  16. 16 πŸ” Which party will win the most parliamentary seats at the next UK general election? 34 usd224.8k
  17. 17 Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs 34 usd4.0M ended
  18. 18 US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? 34 usd3.8M >7d
  19. 19 πŸ”₯πŸ” 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? 34 usd151.5k >7d
  20. 20 πŸ” Who will be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, after Keir Starmer? 33 usd114.9k
  21. 21 Fed Decision in June? 31 usd3.9M >7d
  22. 22 Who will win the 2026 Giro d'Italia Women? [V4] 30 mana26.4k <24h
  23. 23 Brazil Presidential Election 28 usd1.2M >7d
  24. 24 Peru Presidential Election Winner 27 usd1.6M ended
  25. 25 πŸ“° Makerfield by-election winner? 26 usd31.3k >7d
  26. 26 πŸ” Who will be elected to be the next President of France, as a result of the next French presidential election? 26 usd1.4k
  27. 27 Will Democrats lock out the GOP out of the California Primary for Governor. 24 mana15.3k <7d
  28. 28 LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs 24 usd3.8M ended
  29. 29 Will Iran's regime fall in 2026? 23 mana17.8k >7d
  30. 30 Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs 23 usd2.4M ended
  31. 31 Which team wins 2026 Stanley Cup 23 mana29.8k >7d
  32. 32 Crude Oil’s next move: Pump to $120 or Dump to $55? 23 usd42.9k >7d
  33. 33 2026 FIFA World Cup prop bets 23 mana10.7k >7d
  34. 34 HYPE Up or Down - Daily 22 usd963.3k Daily
  35. 35 MNT Up or Down - Daily 22 usd943.7k Daily
  36. 36 Who will win Masters Season 38? 22 mana12.3k >7d
  37. 37 TRX Up or Down - Daily 22 usd855.7k Daily
  38. 38 AVAX Up or Down - Daily 22 usd828.7k Daily
  39. 39 ARB Up or Down - Daily 22 usd809.4k Daily
  40. 40 Who will advance in the Los Angeles mayoral election? 21 usd768.6k >7d
  41. 41 BNB Up or Down - Daily 21 usd757.7k Daily
  42. 42 HBAR Up or Down - Daily 21 usd757.4k Daily
  43. 43 TON Up or Down - Daily 21 usd704.5k Daily
  44. 44 WLFI Up or Down - Daily 21 usd696.7k Daily
  45. 45 ZEC Up or Down - Daily 21 usd682.9k Daily
  46. 46 SUI Up or Down - Daily 21 usd624.2k Daily
  47. 47 BTC Up or Down - Daily 21 usd598.2k Daily
  48. 48 ONDO Up or Down - Daily 21 usd580.0k Daily
  49. 49 Who will be elected mayor of Los Angeles in 2026? 21 mana8.8k >7d
  50. 50 LINK Up or Down - Daily 21 usd485.3k Daily
  51. 51 Which of these parties will provide the Prime Minister of Australia following the next (subsequent to May 2022) Federal Election? 21 usd430.5k
  52. 52 Bitcoin $82K in June? 20 mana8.8k >7d
  53. 53 Will the s&p500 close at 7,500.00 or less before 2028? 20 mana7.7k >7d
  54. 54 Will a millennium problem be solved in 2026? 19 mana14.2k >7d
  55. 55 Who will be Trump's next Attorney General? 19 usd128.9k >7d
  56. 56 Chicago Pro Football Team: Relocation 19 usd128.5k >7d
  57. 57 Who will be the next permanent leader of the Labour Party, after Keir Starmer? 18 usd113.9k
  58. 58 Ethereum next move: Pump to $3K or Dump to $1.5K? 17 usd1.3k >7d
  59. 59 Will NFTs make a comeback before July? 17 usd1.0k >7d
  60. 60 When will Keir Starmer be permanently replaced as Labour Party leader? 17 usd56.1k

🌐 Marketplace Activity ~6h trading volume across all tracked prediction markets as of 20:10 UTC

# Marketplace ~6h volume 1h Ξ” 6h Ξ” 24h Ξ”
1 Polymarket $30,737,878 +6.2% +6.2% +927.1%
2 Limitless $3,177,231 +5.1% +247.8% +255.2%
3 Kalshi $818,524 -1.3% -2.3% +20.7%
4 Betfair $310,303 +0.0% +0.0% +0.0%
5 Myriad $13,599 +19.8% +32.0% +3.6%
6 Manifold αΉ€132,363 β‰ˆ $1,324 -1.0% -8.0% -32.4%
7 sx.bet $0 0.0pp 0.0pp 0.1pp
8 Foretold πŸ‘₯ 246forecasts 0.0pp 0.0pp 0.0pp
Daily volume β€” last 7 days (stacked by marketplace)

πŸ“° Latest News Data powered by Guardian Β· NewsData Β· Currents Β· HN Β· GDELT

  1. Guardian 3h Labour will make AI β€˜work for the workers’, says Liz Kendall
  2. Guardian 4h French Open finals, Monaco GP and World Cup warm-ups for England and Scotland – follow with us
  3. Guardian 5h Downing Street rejects US claim of β€˜two-tiered policing’ over Henry Nowak death - as it happened
  4. Guardian 5h How did the notion of β€˜two-tier policing’ evolve, and does it really exist?
  5. Guardian 6h World Cup 2026 news; Al-Mubarak on City’s 134 charges; Spurs sign Robertson: football– live
  6. Guardian 7h No 10 dismisses US claim of β€˜two-tier’ UK policing after Henry Nowak murder
  7. Guardian 7h Jakub Mensik v Alexander Zverev: French Open 2026 men’s semi-finals – live
  8. HackerNews 8h Ad Blocker Test – Check If Your Ad Blocker Works
  9. HackerNews 8h Programmers will document for Claude, but not for each other
  10. HackerNews 8h Investigation: Russian censorship systems (TMCT) expose Chinese DPI signatures
  11. Guardian 8h Sports quiz of the week: World Cup, French Open, Lord’s, Giro and NBA
  12. HackerNews 8h US tobacco firms applied tobacco strategies to globalize ultra-processed foods

πŸ’Ž Smart-Money Feed β€” markets whales just entered (last 4h, fresh wallets in bold)

  1. MANIFOLD Who will win the 2026 Giro d'Italia Women? [V4] αΉ€20,000 1πŸ†• whales Eliza: NO Other
  2. POLY Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? $3,969 1πŸ†• whales easypredict: BUY Yes
  3. MANIFOLD Will the s&p500 close at 7,500.00 or less before 2028? αΉ€7,655 1πŸ†• whales Jack1: YES
  4. MANIFOLD Who will win the 2026 Norway Chess Tournament? πŸ‘₯ 2 αΉ€6,000 1πŸ†• / 2 whales ChristopherRandles: YES Praggnanandhaa R
  5. MANIFOLD 2026 French Open - Men’s singles winner? αΉ€4,000 1πŸ†• whales SentientTree: YES πŸ‡©πŸ‡ͺ Alexander Zverev
  6. MANIFOLD αΉ€2,915 1πŸ†• whales calour: YES
  7. MANIFOLD Will consumer AI platforms (ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, etc) face an β€˜economic blackout’ αΉ€2,500 1πŸ†• whales consnop: NO
  8. MANIFOLD αΉ€2,087 1πŸ†• whales CraigIM: YES

πŸš€ Top-10 Movers

  1. POLY California Governor Election Winner Β· Steve Hilton 6% β–² 21% 1h+14.7pp 24h-54.3pp
  2. KALSHI Chicago Pro Football Team: Relocation Β· Indiana 63% β–² 70% 1h+7.0pp 24h+28.0pp
  3. KALSHI Who will be Trump's next Attorney General? Β· Todd Blanche 63% β–Ό 61% 1h-2.0pp 24h+1.0pp
  4. KALSHI Who will advance in the Los Angeles mayoral election? Β· Spencer Pratt 24% β–Ό 22% 1h-2.0pp 24h-30.0pp
  5. POLY US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Β· US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? 30% β–Ό 30% 1h-1.0pp 24h-1.0pp
  6. POLY Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Β· Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? 30% β–Ό 28% 1h-1.0pp 24h-2.0pp
Computed from snapshot diffs Β· β‰₯$50k 24h vol Β· β‰₯1pp 1h move filter

⚠ Anomalies β€” pre-resolution irregularities

  1. KALSHI When will Elon Musk become a trillionaire? vol +386% score 40
  2. POLY 2026 Men's French Open Winner vol +186%ends in 28hManifold mirror +214% ↔ manifold corroborates score 92
  3. KALSHI Will Zelenskyy and Putin speak? vol +378% score 40
  4. POLY Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 vol +4044%ends in 3hprice -100% score 90
  5. KALSHI 2028 Democratic VP nominee vol +551% score 40
  6. POLY San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs vol +7469%ends in 166hprice +60% score 90
  7. KALSHI 2028 Republican presidential nominee vol +958% score 40
  8. POLY Bitcoin above ___ on June 6? vol +665%ends in 20hprice -65% score 90

πŸ’§ Most Liquid USD Markets β€” by orderbook depth Β· 2,140s old

  1. POLY 1. $338.7M Italy 0Β’ World Cup Winner
  2. POLY 2. $59.8M Hunter Biden 3Β’ Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
  3. POLY 3. $43.1M John Thune 1Β’ Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
  4. POLY 4. $35.8M Stephen Smith 1Β’ Presidential Election Winner 2028
  5. POLY 5. $13.0M Isack Hadjar 0Β’ F1 Drivers' Champion
  6. POLY 6. $9.5M Knicks vs. Spurs 32Β’ Knicks vs. Spurs
  7. POLY 7. $8.5M Helder Barbalho 0Β’ Brazil Presidential Election
  8. POLY 8. $8.5M Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 1Β’ Next French Presidential Election
  9. POLY 9. $6.5M Steve Hilton 6Β’ California Governor Election Winner
  10. POLY 10. $6.4M 50+ bps increase 0Β’ Fed Decision in June?
  11. POLY 11. $4.3M Wolfgang Grozo 0Β’ Peru Presidential Election Winner
  12. POLY 12. $4.0M Las Vegas Raiders 1Β’ NFL Champion 2027
  13. POLY 13. $3.8M Google 12Β’ Which company has best AI model end of June?
  14. POLY 14. $3.6M Gustavo BolΓ­var (HC) 0Β’ Colombia Presidential Election
  15. POLY 15. $3.5M May 31 0Β’ Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

⏰ Resolving Soon Next 7 days · liquidity-sorted

  1. <24h Knicks vs. Spurs Knicks vs. Spurs 3250Β’
  2. <24h LoL: Misa Esports vs PCIFIC (BO5) - TCL Playoffs Misa Esports 10000Β’
  3. <24h Paraguay vs. Nicaragua Nicaragua 375Β’
  4. <24h Canada vs. Republic of Ireland Canada 5650Β’
  5. <24h Haiti vs. Peru Haiti 3350Β’
  6. <24h OperΓ‘rio FerroviΓ‘rio EC vs. EC Juventude Draw (OperΓ‘rio FerroviΓ‘rio EC vs. EC Juventude) 3350Β’
  7. <24h 2026 Women's French Open Winner
  8. <24h Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire 4350Β’
  9. <24h Dallas Wings vs. Los Angeles Sparks Dallas Wings vs. Los Angeles Sparks 5450Β’
  10. <24h Canada vs. Republic of Ireland - More Markets O/U 2.5 4300Β’
  11. <24h Haiti vs. Peru - More Markets Both Teams to Score 5200Β’
  12. <24h Paraguay vs. Nicaragua - More Markets O/U 4.5 2450Β’
  13. <24h Counter-Strike: GenOne vs BIG Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #4 Group D GenOne 5Β’
  14. <24h Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs RUSTEC (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage ex-RUBY 5650Β’
  15. <24h Puerto Rico vs. Saudi Arabia - More Markets Saudi Arabia (-1.5) 5250Β’

πŸ” Cross-Venue Same event, multiple platforms

  1. No cross-venue events found right now.

πŸ“° Catalyst-Linked News-matched Β· 6h window

  1. Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by...? $2.3M πŸ”—
  2. 2028 Republican presidential nominee $1.2M πŸ”—
  3. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...? $340.1k πŸ”—
  4. Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? $164.7k πŸ”—
  5. 2026 Women's French Open Winner $52.4k πŸ”—
  6. Makerfield by-election winner? $31.3k πŸ”—
  7. 2026 French Open - Men’s singles winner? $26.8k πŸ”—
  8. Will Russia invade a NATO country by...? $14.5k πŸ”—
  9. Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...? $11.8k πŸ”—
  10. How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 25? $11.7k πŸ”—
  11. Will Tom Steyer finish top 2 in the California governor primary? $6.7k πŸ”—
  12. Will Trump finish his second term? $4.8k πŸ”—
  13. Will Iran actually participate in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? $4.8k πŸ”—
  14. Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? [Polymarket] $3.2k πŸ”—
  15. Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War? $2.9k πŸ”—

πŸ— sx.bet Makers Top liquidity providers Β· L3 feed

  1. 0x8682…a8b5 $1.0k 16 mkt
  2. 0x8767…603e $674 47 mkt
  3. 0x1fc3…71e7 $590 1 mkt

πŸ“Š Biggest 24h Movers β€” top 7 each direction

β–² Hottest Risers

  1. BETFAIR Who will be the next permanent leader of the Conservative Party, after Kemi Badenoch? +0.0%
  2. KALSHI 2028 Republican presidential nominee +428.5%
  3. MYRIAD Crude Oil’s next move: Pump to $120 or Dump to $55? +195.7%
  4. POLY Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs +5939.6%
  5. BETFAIR Which of these parties will provide the Prime Minister of Australia following the next (subsequent to May 2022) Federal Election? +0.0%
  6. KALSHI Chicago Pro Football Team: Relocation +370.9%
  7. POLY LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs +906.6%

❄ Coldest (biggest 24h drops)

  1. KALSHI What sector will Anthropic be assigned to in the S&P 500? -94.7%
  2. MYRIAD Crude Oil’s next move: Pump to $120 or Dump to $55? 195.7%
  3. POLY California Governor Primary Election: First Place -83.6%
  4. KALSHI Will President Trump be impeached during his term? -89.2%
  5. POLY Which company has best AI model end of June? -74.7%
  6. KALSHI Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act? -76.2%
  7. POLY Who will Trump publicly insult by June 30? -67.6%

Featured Whale Bets

BIGGEST USD WHALES β€” top 10 all-time (from $3,000)
RECENT USD WHALES β€” last 10 (from $3,000)
  • Loading…

🌍 Top Real-World Events · via PredictHQ

No upcoming events to surface
Either no high-rank events qualified in the current 30-day window, or PREDICTHQ_API_KEY isn't set in Space secrets yet. Once active, this slot lists the highest-impact upcoming concerts, sports, conferences, and festivals β€” context for prediction markets that bet on those events.
β€” Β· β€” all-time